The primary new-home market has shown unstoppable momentum recently, with developers launching projects at prices aligned with or slightly below market levels, successfully unlocking strong demand from first-time buyers, investors and upgraders. For example, Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited’s large-scale flagship project “SIERRA SEA” in Sai Sha — Phase 2C(2) — achieved two consecutive rounds of same-day sell-outs; the developer has now launched a further batch and confirmed a “show-all” sale of 153 units this Sunday. With multiple high-quality new projects hitting the market in quick succession, a highly infectious buying atmosphere has been created, forming a solid defence for the property market.
Strong transaction activity in the primary market is reflected not only in individual project sales velocity but also directly in overall fund flows. According to Midland Realty Research Centre’s analysis of data from the First-hand Residential Property Sales Information Website and the market, as of 21 October, total transaction value for new private residential units across Hong Kong has surged to approximately HK$205 billion — matching last year’s full-year figure in just over 10 months.
More significantly, this marks the first time since 2017 and 2018 that Hong Kong’s annual primary transaction value has exceeded HK$200 billion for two consecutive years. The data clearly shows that, at a time when global assets are accelerating their shift towards safe-haven destinations, funds are flowing more rapidly into Hong Kong’s physical residential market.
This buying wave driven by primary-market enthusiasm has quickly spread to the subsidised housing sector, creating a chain reaction. On the first day of flat selection for “HOS 2025”, over 260 units were sold; Kai Yeung Court, located in the Kai Tak Core Area, unsurprisingly emerged as a top choice. The robust performance of the subsidised housing market reflects deep-rooted local first-time buyer demand. As residential rents have risen steadily in recent months, the affordability of buying versus renting has shifted from theory to a daily consideration for prospective buyers. Combined with current stable mortgage policies and a low-interest-rate environment, home purchase thresholds and long-term repayment burdens for residents have become increasingly manageable, further boosting tenants’ willingness to switch from renting to buying.
In addition to strong local demand, changes in external exchange rates and macroeconomic data are providing extra impetus to Hong Kong’s property market. China’s recent announcement of 4.5% year-on-year GDP growth for the third quarter demonstrated stronger-than-expected economic resilience; meanwhile, the renminbi’s continued strength — reaching a more than four-and-a-half-year high — has created a more pronounced “exchange-rate discount” for mainland buyers and mainland professionals and high-talent individuals coming to Hong Kong, effectively lowering the cost of purchasing Hong Kong properties. This not only directly boosts property-buying intentions among high-calibre talent but also indirectly accelerates recovery in sectors such as tourism, retail and commercial markets.
From the perspectives of asset returns and defensive capability, Hong Kong’s property market also demonstrates credible resilience against declines and potential for appreciation. The “Midland Realty Property Price Index” has risen about 18% from its low point last year, driving the profit-taking ratio for second-hand residential units to remain near 70% for two consecutive quarters; for owners holding properties for over 15 years, the profit-taking ratio reaches nearly 99%, fully affirming that “long-term holding” remains the surest path to stable capital appreciation in Hong Kong.
Meanwhile, the commercial, industrial and retail property market is gradually stabilising after declines, with the vacancy rate for benchmark Grade A office space falling further to 8.5% in September — the lowest since December 2020 — reflecting renewed corporate expansion intent.
Overall, under the leadership of strong primary-market transaction momentum, Hong Kong’s property market is gradually exhibiting a comprehensive recovery pattern — extending from the residential sector to the commercial market. With multiple favourable factors converging — including the release of pent-up demand, renminbi exchange-rate benefits and advantages in home purchase affordability — fund inflows into Hong Kong’s property market have become an established trend, and the market is expected to show steady upward movement going forward.
中文版 (今年一手吸金突破2000亿 资金涌楼市助展升势)